台湾大选在即 大陆静观其变

China Tones Down Rhetoric Before Island's Election

本周六台湾将举行总统大选，而中国政府这一回采取了新策略，那便是静观其变。As China awaits the outcome of Saturday's vote in Taiwan, it is adopting a new strategy: do nothing.

多年以来，中国要么在台湾大选前试射导弹，要么提出警告。大陆想藉此传递的信息很简单：独立？想都别想。In years past, China has fired missiles at Taiwan, and leaders have issued pointed warnings just before elections. The message has been simple: do not even think about declaring independence. China claims the island as its territory.

台湾陆委会副主席刘德勋称，大陆汲取了对待台湾大选问题的经验教训，这一次他们安静多了。'China has learned a lesson for how to deal with Taiwan's elections,' says Liu Te-Shun, vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, a Taiwanese government body charged with dealing with China. 'This time they are talking less.'

大陆高层领导人对台湾的总统大选一直所言甚少，只对周六同时举行的台湾“入联公投”表示了不满。不过对此不满的并非只有中国，美国、日本和澳大利亚都与中国站在同一阵线，对公投提出了类似的警告。周二中国总理温家宝对“入联公投”提出警告，此举在周三引起了台湾方面一些政客的回击，不过大陆方面总的来看一直保持沉默。Top Chinese officials have been largely silent on the presidential election, except to express displeasure over a referendum on Saturday's ballot, which asks whether Taiwan should reapply for United Nations membership. But China has avoided being the only opponent of the referendum and has lined up countries such as the U.S., Japan and Australia to issue similar warnings against it. On Tuesday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned against the U.N. referendum. That riled some Taiwanese politicians Wednesday, but overall China has kept silent.

北京大学国际关系学教授牛军称，中国政府明显采用了新政策，政府想表现得更谨慎，不再多说。'It's clearly a new policy,' says Niu Jun, an international-relations professor at Peking University. 'The government is trying to be a bit more cautious and to say a bit less.'

不过，大陆的新姿态并不代表对台湾领土的强烈诉求较过去减弱。中国人一直在台湾居住，直到19世纪末的中日甲午战争，中国因为战败而被迫将台湾割让给日本。到了上世纪40年代末，国民党败退至台湾，并一直统治此岛长达数十年。此后国民党逐渐放松对台湾的政治控制权，并于90年代实现多党参与的民主选举。中国总理温家宝周二表示，许多大陆同胞将收复台湾视为国家统一的最后重任之一。It's not that China feels less strongly about Taiwan. Taiwan was settled by Chinese and left the mainland's control only when China lost a 19th-century war with Japan. In the late 1940s, retreating armies of the Nationalist party took over the island and made it their base for decades before finally easing control and allowing a multiparty democracy to take hold in the 1990s. On Tuesday, Mr. Wen spoke for many mainland Chinese in seeing Taiwan as one of the last pieces needed to make China whole again.

温家宝称：“我是一个爱国主义者，我脑子里总是在想，‘一心中国梦、万古下泉诗’，‘度尽劫波兄弟在，相逢一笑泯恩仇’。”'I am a patriot,' Mr. Wen said. 'And I hope in my lifetime to see my country unified.'

虽然许多台湾人对中国有文化上的认同感，但只有一小部分人赞成立即实现两岸统一，另有一些人主张正式独立，不过大多数人则安于现状。台湾有自己的政府、军队，并且与世界上不少国家建立了准外交关系，但迫于中国大陆的压力，鲜有国家承认台湾是个主权国家。Many Taiwanese feel culturally close to China -- the country is still overwhelmingly ethnic Chinese -- but only a small minority favor immediate reunification. A larger minority want formal independence. Most are comfortable with the status quo: Taiwan has its own government, armed forces and quasi-diplomatic relations with many countries in the world, although under pressure from China, few recognize it as a sovereign state.

多年以来，中国大陆方面一直反复强调对台湾拥有主权。在1996年台湾首次举行总统全民直选期间，大陆向台湾海峡试射了4枚导弹。虽然大多数分析师称这些导弹携带的是假弹头，但这一带有象征性的行动将李登辉推上了总统宝座。李登辉是土生土长的台湾人，主张培养对“台湾人”的认同感。In past years, China has hammered home its claim to Taiwan. During Taiwan's first democratic election for president in 1996, it fired four missiles toward Taiwan. Most analysts say the missiles probably carried dummy warheads, but the symbolic act helped give the election to Lee Teng-hui, a native-born Taiwanese who favored cultivating a separate identity for Taiwanese.

接下来的2000年，公开主张台湾独立的陈水扁在选战中取得优势，这让大陆方面相当震惊。就在台湾即将大选之际，时任总理的朱镕基在全国人大的记者会上表示：“现在台湾人民面临紧急的历史时刻，何去何从，切莫一时冲动，以免后悔莫及”。而陈水扁抓住这一言论大做文章，并最终当选。到了2004年，大陆方面的态度有所软化，不过，还是有位高级领导人在一份主要报纸上表示，如果台湾方面认为大陆不会动武，那会付出很大的代价。而陈水扁再一次利用了台湾人的自尊，最终当选总统。In 2000, China was aghast when an overtly pro-independence candidate, Chen Shui-bian, was on the verge of victory. Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji used his annual news conference shortly before the vote to 'give advice to all the people of Taiwan: Do not act on impulse. Otherwise you will regret it very much and it will be too late to repent.' Mr. Chen made hay with Mr. Zhu's warning, saying that Taiwanese were insulted by his behavior, and he was elected. By 2004, China was softening its approach but a senior official quoted in a major newspaper said Taiwanese will 'pay a high costs if they think we will not use force' if it declares independence. Mr. Chen again played on Taiwanese pride and squeaked to victory.

不过此次台湾大选，大陆方面要轻松一些。因为两位候选人都支持改善两岸关系，也都不完全主张独立。此外，外界普遍认为受大陆青睐的国民党候选人马英九，在民意测验中大大领先对手。他比民进党候选人谢长廷更为倾向大陆。This time, China has a somewhat easier choice. Both Taiwanese candidates support better ties with China and neither is pushing outright for independence. In addition, the candidate China is widely believed to prefer, Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalists, has had a commanding lead in the polls. He favors somewhat closer ties than his opponent of the Democratic Progressive Party, Frank Hsieh.

在周二的记者会上，有记者向温家宝提出关于西藏和台湾的问题。而温家宝没有作出过多表态。但他承诺给予台湾更多贸易优惠，并表示只要在一个中国的前提下，两岸什么问题都可以谈。At Tuesday's news conference, Mr. Wen was asked a question that linked Tibet and Taiwan. Mr. Wen refused to be drawn. He promised more trade concessions to Taiwan and said that as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, anything 'could be put on the table.'