China one-child policy to stay in place

BEIJING - China won't consider changing its one-child policy for at least another decade, the country's top family planning official said in a published interview Monday.

"Given such a large population base, there would be major fluctuations in population growth if we abandoned the one-child rule now," he was quoted as saying. "It would cause serious problems and add extra pressure on social and economic development.

Any change in the policy would only be considered after the end of the country's next birth peak in 10 years, Zhang said. Over the next decade, nearly 200 million people will enter child-bearing years.

"After the new birth peak ends, we may adjust the policy if there is need," he said.

The policy, launched during the 70s, has prevented an additional 400 million births. China's population currently stands at 1.3 billion, growing 16 to 17 million annually.

Beijing limits most urban couples to one child and rural couples to two to conserve scarce resources. Critics say the policy has led to forced abortions, sterilizations and a dangerously imbalanced sex ratio due to a traditional preference for male heirs.

Zhang's remarks, made on the sidelines of the annual legislative session, was clearly aimed at slapping down reports that the country was considering scrapping its one-child policy.

In recent weeks, several officials have tentatively suggested that an overhaul of the policy may be forthcoming since China has succeeded in slowing down its population growth.

Potential changes have also stemmed from concerns about China's aging population, with those aged 60 or older expected to top 200 million by 2015 and 280 million by 2025, according to government figures.

Zhang stressed that the emerging problems should not be blamed solely on the one-child policy and "it will be simplistic" to focus on a single approach.

Getting rid of the one-child policy now would create more problems than it would solve, he said